Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is heading into this week’s policy meeting under intense pressure from President Donald Trump to cut rates — even as markets price in a high chance of a hike.
Markets Expect a Hike
Traders see roughly a 90% chance the Fed will raise its benchmark rate on Wednesday, the first increase in three years. Core inflation remains elevated, and Warsh argued at Jackson Hole that the Fed has not yet finished the job on prices.
Trump’s Demand
The president has publicly urged lower borrowing costs, saying the United States “should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world.” A hike would put the central bank in open conflict with the White House just weeks before the midterms.
Independence on the Line
Investors are watching whether Warsh prioritizes the inflation fight over political pressure. A quarter-point move is not guaranteed — Warsh signals less than some past chairs — but most economists still expect the Fed to act.
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The S&P 500 is on its 6th negative day in the last 7. This is the market pricing in tomorrow's rate hike.
— Quinn Thompson (@qthomp) September 15, 2026
